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Fear & Greed

25

Extreme Fear

Market Sentiment

Event Calendar

{{年份}}
30
04
upgrade Celestia Mainnet Upgrade

Improves data availability sampling efficiency

18
03
unlock Sui Token Unlock

Team and early investor shares released

12
05
halving BCH Halving

Block reward halving event

10
05
upgrade Ethereum Pectra Upgrade

Raises validator limit and account abstraction

22
03
unlock Optimism Unlock

Circulating supply increases by about 2%

15
04
halving Bitcoin Halving

Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC

28
03
unlock Arbitrum Token Unlock

92 million ARB released

08
04
upgrade Solana Firedancer

Independent validator client goes live on mainnet

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44

Bitcoin Season

BTC Dominance Altseason

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Ethereum 28 Gwei
BNB Chain 3 Gwei
Polygon 42 Gwei
Arbitrum 0.5 Gwei
Optimism 0.3 Gwei

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Bitcoin
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Ethereum
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SOL
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1
BNB Chain
BNB
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1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.11
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0739
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1646
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.7
1
Polkadot
DOT
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1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.51

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Stablecoins

Bitcoin's Identity Crisis: The BIP-110 Battle and the Coming Fork

CryptoSignal

Consider this: a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal with less than 1% miner support is barreling toward a forced activation window in August. This is not a bug—it's a feature of a governance model on the verge of breaking. BIP-110, if activated, will cap non-transaction data per output at 256 bytes. The stated goal: to purge Ordinals and Runes from the chain. The hidden consequence: a likely hard fork that will split the community and redefine Bitcoin's value proposition. I've spent years dissecting protocol conflicts, and this one is the most consequential since the Blocksize War.

Context: The Two Bitcoins

Bitcoin was conceived as peer-to-peer digital cash. For over a decade, its primary use case was value transfer. Then 2023 arrived. Ordinals allowed anyone to inscribe arbitrary data—images, text, even entire files—onto satoshis. Runes, a fungible token protocol, followed, driving transaction fees up by 32% in October 2024 alone. Suddenly, Bitcoin was not just a settlement layer but a data storage platform. Miners loved the extra revenue. A new ecosystem of BRC-20 tokens and digital artifacts bloomed.

But for a cadre of core developers—led by Dathon Ohm and Luke Dashjr—this is a desecration. They see Ordinals as spam, bloating the UTXO set and raising node operational costs. Their weapon: BIP-110. The proposal would limit non-financial data to 256 bytes per output, effectively killing large inscriptions. Crucially, the activation mechanism is not miner voting but a time-locked forced window. This is a minority coup, not consensus.

Core: The Technical Tug-of-War

Let me walk through the mechanics. BIP-110 modifies the consensus layer to enforce a new rule on the script’s OP_RETURN output or any similar data-carrying pattern. Running a BIP-110 node means rejecting any block that contains a transaction with a data payload exceeding 256 bytes. The current version is implemented in Bitcoin Knots, but support remains below 1% among miners.

Here is the catch: the forced activation window opens on August 1st. At that point, any node running BIP-110 will reject blocks that do not comply. If less than a majority of hash power adopts the new rules, the network splits. One chain will have the old rules (call it “Core Chain”), and the other will enforce BIP-110 (“Covenants Chain”). Both will have valid blocks, but they will be incompatible.

The Ordinals community, led by Casey Rodarmor, is not waiting idly. They have proposed a bypass: split large inscriptions into 256-byte chunks, each embedded in its own transaction output. This is a clever exploit, but it has a dark side. A single 100 KB file would require 400 transactions. That is not reducing bloat; it is multiplying it. The very problem BIP-110 seeks to solve—transaction spam and UTXO set growth—would be exacerbated.

Based on my experience auditing smart contract interactions, this is a classic composability trap. A rule change at the consensus layer creates a cat-and-mouse game at the application layer. The bypass is likely to increase chain bloat and transaction fees, hurting all users. Meanwhile, the UTXO set, swollen by existing inscriptions, will continue to grow. As I often note: composability is a double-edged sword.

Contrarian: The Blind Spots

The popular narrative is that BIP-110 will fail because miners oppose it. But the forced activation changes the game. A minority can force a split. The contrarian angle is that both chains may survive, each attracting different use cases. The Core Chain (without BIP-110) would continue to host Ordinals and high-fee activity. The Covenants Chain would be slower, cheaper, and more “pure.” This is not a win for either side; it is a permanent fragmentation of liquidity, value, and network effects.

Another blind spot: the bypass. If adopted, it will normalize data sharding on Bitcoin. That could become a new standard, making Bitcoin even more of a general-purpose computer—exactly what the purists fear. As I have written before: innovation decays without rigorous scrutiny. But sometimes the scrutiny itself creates worse outcomes.

Takeaway: The Vulnerability Forecast

Bitcoin is entering a stress test of its governance model. The next six weeks will determine whether it remains a monolithic story of digital gold or splinters into competing visions. For holders, the risk is not just a price drop but a fundamental shift in what “Bitcoin” means. Whether you own Ordinals or not, the coming fork will audit the soul of value. Prepare for volatility, and understand that trust is math, not magic.